Tensions in the South China Sea: Impact on Global Stability

Tensions in the South China Sea are increasing, having a far-reaching impact on global stability. This region is in the spotlight due to the intersection of geopolitical, economic and security interests. The meeting of several countries, such as China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, in territorial claims creates uncertainty. This dispute has the potential to trigger an armed conflict that could involve major powers, such as the United States. Many countries depend on the South China Sea as a major trade route. About 30% of global shipping passes through these waters, making them important for the world economy. Prolonged tensions could disrupt the transportation of goods, increase logistics costs, and encourage companies to look for alternative trade routes. This situation could be detrimental to the global economy, as uncertainty deters foreign investment. China, which has extensive territorial claims in the region, has increased its military presence, building associated bases on artificial islands. This prompted responses from neighboring countries and allies, especially the United States, which emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation. In this context, joint military exercises between the US and ASEAN countries are increasingly being carried out as an effort to balance power in the region. Additionally, these tensions impact international alliances. Countries in the Southeast Asian region are forced to choose sides between major powers, which adds complexity to diplomatic relations. For example, the Philippines is engaged in defensive cooperation with the US, while Vietnam is seeking to strengthen ties with other countries in ASEAN and Russia. This uncertainty can create greater security gaps, allowing for further sparks of conflict. Social media and propaganda also play an important role in strengthening each side’s narrative. With increasing reliance on digital information, news related to these tensions can be controlled or manipulated to build domestic or international support. On the other hand, false or inaccurate information can exacerbate the atmosphere of tension, creating unwarranted fear among the public. From an international law perspective, tensions in the South China Sea also challenge existing norms. The case of the Arbitration Court decision in The Hague in 2016 which rejected China’s claims to all areas in the South China Sea shows the conflict between international law and national interests. However, implementing the decision is difficult, especially if a powerful country, such as China, refuses to recognize it. Tensions in this region must be taken seriously by global countries. Through stronger diplomacy and international mediation, the potential for conflict can be minimized. The involvement of international organizations, such as the UN and ASEAN, is very important to create open dialogue and mutual understanding between parties in conflict. Continued stability in the South China Sea will be largely determined by the ability of all parties to work together constructively, prioritize dialogue over tension, and maintain commitment to international law.